Showing posts with label Hanson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hanson. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

None so Blind...

There are none so blind as those that will not see.


Pauline Hanson's legal challenge for a seat on the Legislative Council crashed and burned in dramatic fashion in the NSW Supreme Court late yesterday afternoon.


Her star witness was revealed to be a not only a liar, but a vicious prankster who deceived everyone for reasons that we may never know.


Sean Castle.  Photo from SMH
Hanson withdrew her case after Sean Castle revealed that he had sent the email purporting to be from "Michael Rattner". He further revealed that he did not know anyone who worked at the Electoral Commission and that the emails suggesting that the count was incorrect were utter fabrications.


One issue I wanted to discuss first - contrary to just about every article I have read and the chat on twitter yesterday (with the exception of an excellent analysis by Matthew Knott over at Crikey), I don't think that Castle received immunity from prosecution in return for his evidence.


No one in that courtroom had the power to grant that immunity.


Rather, the "immunity" spoken about related to protection from his evidence being used against him at a later date, as per section 128 of the Evidence Act.


There is a general protection before Australian courts against giving evidence where that evidence might be used against you at a later date.


On that basis, if there is a possibility of the answer you give to a question being used against you at a later date, you can refuse to answer a question.


It's similar to the way that, if you are accused of a crime, you have no obligation to give evidence, and the crown cannot force you to get on the stand.


Judging from the live tweeting that @tobiasziegler was kind enough to provide, we can see that Castle first refused to answer questions:
and then was granted a "certificate" meaning that the evidence could not be used against him at a later date.




He can still be prosecuted for a offence in relation to the emails - it just means that his evidence before the court yesterday cannot be used against him.


The hard part, having said that, is to find an appropriate offence. It seems unlikely that he has committed fraud, as there was no obvious "benefit" received by him or anyone else.


He hasn't committed perjury - in fact, when finally under oath, he appears to have told the truth for the first time.


I haven't looked into it closely enough, but he may have committed some sort of forgery type offence. 


I don't propose to recreate the wheel by listing all the reasons that Hanson perhaps should have cottoned onto what was going on before everything collapsed so spectacularly - Matthew Knott lists 5 very good reasons in his article.


I do, however, want to pick up on the one oddity that was plainly obvious without the benefit of hindsight.


The email that we now know to be fake says "I have heard through the chain that there could be as many as 1200 that are in with the blanks."


This is information that Hanson had from day one - as you can see from the email, it was part of the original document that Rattner/Castle sent to Hanson.


Part of the email sent to Hanson's team.  From Crikey


There are a multitude of reasons why the issue should have died right then and there.


Firstly, the person who (according to the document) wrote the email said that he has heard it "through the chain" which to me means "unsubstantiated gossip".


Moreover, that number of votes would have required some sort of conspiracy - it is difficult to imagine how anything less than a team of saboteurs could have achieved something of that scale.


Who are they?  What are they trying to achieve? How could they manage such a deception?  


How did Rattner/Castle get hold of this email? Surely the people having this discussion would have been sensitive to the consequences if it was to be leaked?


Then there was the fact that neither Hanson or anyone in her legal team had ever actually met with this whistleblower.  Surely the fact that he refused to sit down with them and swear and affidavit should have been a clue that things were not as they seemed.


But the biggest issue, the one that should have stopped her before she launched any legal action, is this - she lost by more than 1200 votes.


The email suggests that "as many as 1200 votes" went missing.  As I wrote about here, on the last count Pauline was 1306 behind Sarah Johnson and was eliminated.


Even if the email was true, even if the unsubstantiated allegation was true, even if Rattner was a real person, she was still over 100 votes off the pace.


I have no idea what advice her lawyers did or didn't give her - I don't know them personally.  But surely we have to assume they explained to her very clearly that she was on shaky ground and that there didn't appear to be a huge amount to work with.


I wrote about the unanswered questions when the perceived irregularity first came to light, and asked a bunch of questions, most of which Hanson's team were clearly not able to answer until yesterday.


But, as I think we can all attest to, sometimes there is just no telling some people.


Clearly Hanson was distraught about her loss, which I think we can all identify with on some level. However, there does also have to be a time when we accept that things are the way they are and move on gracefully.


The very first day the email came it, her team should have gotten Castle/Rattner to front up with evidence, or simply ignored him.  It was Hanson and her team that fuelled this story, and it is Hanson who is left looking like a fool.


She launched a massive legal action, knowing that if it all blew up she would leave herself horribly exposed, on the basis of an email sent to her by someone she had never met.


Sometimes, however, common sense has no chance against the genuine belief that you have been cheated.  Her lawyers may very well have told her that the case was doomed from the very start.


Heck, they may have pleaded with her not to proceed because they were able to see this coming.


They no doubt warned her about the potential for a 6 figure costs order against her from the defendants.


But, sometimes, there are none so blind as those that will not see.  And they may just have been her undoing.

Saturday, May 7, 2011

A Hans On Kind of Girl

When Pauline Hanson first nominated for the NSW Upper House, I think everyone expected drama, but surely nothing like this.


First we had the drama as the final seat went down to the wire, and the sniping between Labor and the Greens about whose fault it would be if she was elected. 


Then we had the chance to view the distribution of preferences and see just how close Hanson got to a seat.  


But even though Hanson missed out in the end (at least according to the NSW Electoral Commission) she has refused to lie down.


As far back as the day that the final count was announced (April 12), Hanson was crying foul. 


Hanson complained then that the the system leans towards the major parties because they get to have their names above the line.


She also pointed to the 230 000 informal votes and 200 000 blank votes and suggested that there is "something wrong with the system".


Two days later on April 14 Hanson was demanding a recount.  There is an extremely complex system whereby preferences are distributed that I don't intend to address, but suffice to say Hanson felt that she had been cheated by it.


More recently though, a more serious complaint has emerged.


There appear to be 2 distinct branches of complaint.


First of all, as detailed in this article, at least one scrutineer discovered Hanson votes sorted with blank votes. 


We're given no further details in that story, but this would seem to be a fairly weak complaint - no doubt every party lost out on some votes that were incorrectly counted or distributed. This problem will persist until the day we finally do away with paper voting entirely.


The more interesting complaint is explained here.


In essence, she is complaining that dodgy electoral staff have "cheated" her out of a seat.


According to the Tele, her solicitor said that "an email had been sent to Ms Hanson from someone within the NSW Electoral Commission proving her claims were true."


The Herald goes one further and appears to quote said email, which reads as follows: "We know some of her people and the media are looking at the blank ballots and are trying to get them all rechecked because one of her scrutineers was meant to of (sic) found some of her votes in amongst the blanks (I have heard through the chain that there could be as many as 1200 across the state that are in with the blanks as there were a few dodgy electoral staff on, but don't offer that)."


It goes without saying that if the claim is true then it would a scandal of enormous proportions.


The important questions are:
- Who wrote this email?
- What level of knowledge did the writer have?
- What evidence is there of "dodgy electoral staff"?
- Is dodgy meant to suggest incompetent, or corrupt?
- What basis is there for the claim of 1200 votes?


At this stage, the whole thing looks a little groundless.  Hopefully as things progress is made we will find out more about Hanson's claims.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

All Hans On Deck?

A lot was written in the lead-up to the final distribution of Legislative Council Preferences about the fate of Pauline Hanson. There was also a lot of finger-pointing about who would be to blame if she was elected (which I have written about here).


The count has now been released by the NSW Electoral Commission, and it's an interesting read (if you're into that kind of thing).


I'm not going to explain how preference voting works here - if you want to know more, read the many excellent articles Anthony Green has written on the topic.


The first thing I noticed as I looked through the "First Preference by Group and Candidate"  is this. Pauline received 20 004 first preference votes. That is more than ANY OTHER candidate.


Now that is kind of an unfair statement, because as usual most people voted above the line. For example, the Coalition received 1 923 914 votes above the line.


That said, the number 1 spot on the Liberal ticket (Mike Gallagher) only received 12 582 votes.


Let's put it another way. Of all the people who were bothered to vote below the line, Pauline was the OVERWHELMING leader on first preferences.


Pauline was the number 1 spot holder for Group J (that being a ragtag bunch of independents), and that group received 77 926 first preferences, which was no doubt propelled in part by Pauline's presence at the top.


That's a solid 6th place amongst the groups, behind the Coalition, Labor, the Greens, the Shooters and Fishers, and the Christian Democrats. That's ahead of Family First and the Democrats.


Of course, first preference doesn't count for much when you're scrabbling for a seat. A quota is 185 274 votes, so even with that good start (97 930 first preference votes) Pauline still had a long way to go.


As you will know, candidates are eliminated one at a time and their votes distributed to the candidates left in the count.


The Electoral Commission has provided the full count and distribution on its website. 


After 300 counts, the remaining candidates (and their votes, including allocated preferences) are in the table below.


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 151 878
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 127 682
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 99 172
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 90 215
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 84 996
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 60 729
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 55 228
John Hatton (Independent) 53 415
Charles Matthews (No Parking Meters) 50 544
Andrew Ferguson (Labor) 41 444
Arther Chesterfield-Evans (Democrats) 35 140
David Leyonhjelm (Outdoor Recreation) 31 818


At this stage, there were 17 candidates already elected:


Coalition 10
Labor 5
Greens 2


This meant that there were 4 spots left to fill. Of the remaining candidates, Pauline is in 3rd place, or in 20th overall (counting those already elected).


On Count 301, David Leyonhjelm (Outdoor Recreation) was excluded. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 153,106 (+1,228)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 127,953 (+271)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 99,290 (+118)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 91,213 (+998)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 85,648 (+652)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 61,227 (+498)
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 56,374 (+1,146)
John Hatton (Independent) 53,631 (+216)
Charles Matthews (No Parking Meters) 51,931 (+1,387)
Andrew Ferguson (Labor) 41,926 (+482)
Arther Chesterfield-Evans (Democrats) 35,271 (+131)


You'll notice that Pauline was distributed 118 votes, which is the least of any of the remaining candidates. Nonetheless, she remains in 3rd (20th) place.


On Count 302, Arther Chesterfield-Evans (Democrats) was excluded and his preferences distributed. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 153,355 (+249)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 128,234 (+281)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 99,528 (+238)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 92,542 (+1,329)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 88,960 (+3,312)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 61,521 (+294)
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 56,723 (+349)
John Hatton (Independent) 54,165 (+534)
Charles Matthews (No Parking Meters) 52,234 (+303)
Andrew Ferguson (Labor) 43,358 (+1,432)


Pauline again receives the least preferences of any candidate, but remained in 3rd (20th) place.


On count 303, Andrew Ferguson (Labor) was excluded. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 153,576 (+221)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 128,482 (+248)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 99,686 (+158)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 93,374 (+832)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 92,698 (+3,738)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 61,924 (+403)
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 56,968 (+245)
John Hatton (Independent) 54,428 (+263)
Charles Matthews (No Parking Meters) 52,602 (+368)


Pauline again receives the least preferences, and with Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) receiving a big chunk of the preferences from the Labor candidate, the gap to the 22nd (and, therefore, first losing) candidate is narrowing.


On count 304, Charles Matthews (No Parking Meters) was excluded. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 154,886 (+1,310)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 128,997 (+515)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 99,916 (+230)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 96,570 (+3,196)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 95,188 (+2,490)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 63,458 (+1,534)
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 58,751 (+1,783)
John Hatton (Independent) 55,276 (+848)


Pauline again gets the least preferences, and more than 10 times less than 21st and 22nd.


On count 305, John Hatton (Independent) was excluded. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 155,309 (+423)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 130,322 (+1,325)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 102,199 (+2,283)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 101,454 (+6,266)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 99,838 (+3,268)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 64,267 (+809)
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 59,150 (+399)


On this distribution, Pauline did not receive the least - in fact, she was the 3rd most of the remaining 7 candidates. The gap to 22nd is still smaller yet - only about 2000 votes.


On count 306, Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) drops out, and the preferences are distributed. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 164,719 (+9,410)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 130,483 (+161)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 102,466 (+267)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 102,276 (+822)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 101,183 (+1,345)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 64,738 (+471)


This time Pauline received the 2nd least preferences. The gap to 22nd is now a touch over 1000 votes.


On count 307, Gordon Moyes (Family First) was eliminated. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 166,112 (+1,393)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 134,804 (+4,321)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 105,472 (+3,196)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 104,341 (+3,158)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 103,035 (+569)


And with that, Pauline drops to 5th (22nd place), having again received the least preferences, and by some margin. Upon her being eliminated, there are only 4 candidates remaining. As there are only 4 seats left to fill (21 seats available, and 17 candidates already elected) the remaining 4 are immediately elected.


In other words, leading up to the last count, Pauline was 2 spots clear of missing out. On the VERY LAST distribution, she dropped 2 spots and missed out.


So, if you're wondering how close it was, the answer is very. Very, very, very close.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

A Labor Tantrum


We always knew that Hanson being involved in the NSW election would produce some drama - it just wasn't in the way we expected.

In the event, her "campaign" was barely a blip on the radar.  Whether the media deliberately ignored her or not is difficult to say, but after her position on the ballot was determined she was fairly anonymous.  

In the wash, it looks like she will miss out on the last remaining upper house seat (see Anthony Green's blog for updates).  That seat looks likely to go to the Greens.

The interesting part has been to see the Labor reaction to the possibility of Hanson's election.

The reaction has no doubt been coloured by the fact that, despite the Coalition not getting an absolute majority in the upper house, (the Coalition look set to hold 19 of the 42 seats), along with the Shooters (2 seats) and the Christian Democrats (2 seats) the conservative side of politics will have a majority.

To say Labor and the Greens have been vexed by this result would appear to be an understatement.

The worst thing for Labor is that whilst next time round they will no doubt win more than the 5 they won this time round, they will be defending the 9 they won in 2007, so will be unlikely to gain much, if any, ground.

Anthony Albanese, Federal member for Grayndler, was quoted on SMH Online today. Exactly why Federal members are making comments on the NSW election is unclear, but we'll put that aside.

Albanese appears to blame the Greens for Labor losing half a dozen seats in the lower house.  This may be true - of course, the Greens I'm sure had their own very good reasons for doing what they did.  Perhaps if they preferenced Labor in the seats they had no chance of winning, they would have, by association, damaged their chances in the two seats they actually had a chance of winning (Balmain and Marrickville).

That said, the "estimate" of 6 seats would seem to be stretching the truth just a little.

Albanese was then quoted as saying "It is possible this week Pauline Hanson could be elected to the NSW upper house because of the failure of the Greens party to do a preference swapping deal with NSW Labor in the upper house."

Now this is a little ridiculous.  For a start, it seems inconceivable that many Greens voters would preference Hanson above Labor, preference deal or not.  Anthony Green says (speaking of the 2003 results, when Hanson last ran for the Upper House) that Hanson "did much worse than Labor and the Greens on the distribution of preferences from just about every other party on the ballot paper."

It appears that Green voters did not need to be told to preference against Hanson in 2003, and there is no reason we should expect any different tin 2011.  

Even if the chips had not fallen the way they have, it shows breathtaking arrogance from Labor to tell the Greens off in relation to this.

Even if the Labor pundits (Luke Foley has gotten involved as well) were right (they're not), who are they to lay into the Greens for not preferencing the way Labor told them to?

The Greens are their own party.  They are entitled to preference exactly who they want.  They are not a subset of the Labor party, and the disgruntled Labor pundits would do well to be reminded of that. No deal was broken, no lie was told - the Greens simply formed the view that it was not in their interests to preference Labor.

Just because Labor and the Greens have a convenient ability to work together and have policies that are at least partially in sync does not mean that the Greens need to preference as if the parties are in a formal coalition.

That is especially so when the Labor government have, over the last 4 years, delivered a master-class in how to infuriate an electorate.

More likely, if Labor had not so thoroughly balls-up the last 4 years then the election would have been a real competition between 2 viable alternatives, and the voters would have been less likely to vote for a Queenslander whose candidacy could at best be described as "opportunistic".

In any event, it's doubtful that anyone is particularly interested in Labor's attempts to write the history of the NSW election long these lines.  The election will be remembered for a great big thumping given by the Coalition, and given that Hanson will now most likely not win a seat, Labor won't have the chance to trot out an utterly implausible "I told you so" any time Hanson stymied one of their plans.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Please Explain

Last blogpost (http://bit.ly/eG0MCV) I bemoaned the general lack of interest in this election, and conceded that it was a bit of an election for the "purists" - those of us who enjoy the process with or without drama.


Two stories arose in the last 48 hours to inject some excitement into proceeds, and perhaps a little interest from the viewers.


The first was the unexpected appearance of Pauline Hanson, who announced she would be seeking an upper-house seat.  Apparently she is running on "cost of living issues".


There is no doubt she will get her fair share of attention (as she always done).  She got a dud draw in the ballot (getting towards but not quite at the right edge - on such minutia careers are made and lost) and she announced she'd be heading to regional areas to drum up support.

The difficulty for her is working out whose voters she is going to nick.  Labor's voters are, as I have discussed (http://bit.ly/fsBk0Q) just the rusted on voters.  They won't move.


The people planning on voting for smaller parties usually have a very good reason for doing so, so won't be going anywhere.


The Liberal voters fall in multiple categories: rusted on Liberal voters, disaffected Labor voters wanting to "give the other lot a chance", and traditional swinging voters who, overwhelmingly it seems, are backing the Coalition.


It is difficult to see who of these Hanson could grab.  Perhaps a few of the disaffected Labor voters, but it is hard to see someone traditionally voting for Labor casting a ballot, in any circumstances, for Hanson.


The only real source of voters I can see is those people who feel no affiliation for either party - of those, some people will be sympathetic to her "agenda" (meaning her previously stated views) and will move across. But, to my mind, that's about it.


I personally doubt she will get much cut-through on her "cost of living issues" - when people see her name on the ballot paper all they will think is "We are being overrun by Asians" - at least, except for those of us who think of Pauline PantsDown (http://bit.ly/ibxQ5O).


Hanson's detractors are out of luck too - there is no opportunity for her to make money from the election, because the funding available if one gets sufficient votes can only cover costs - so hopefully we'll be spared allegations that she's only in the election to try and "steal" money from the public purse.


It promises to be an amusing sideshow, and will give many people a chance to fill in 311 first.  Yes, that's right, 311 candidates.  I'll be bringing my own pen.  Or maybe a sharpener.


The most amazing about that number is the word "only" appears in front of it in many reports.  


The other incident was at the drawing of the ballot for the Upper House.  


Apparently a man attended in a bathrobe and a bowtie.  After the drawing, he "revealed" that the only other thing he was wearing was a g-string.


Apparently he is from the nudist party, and with a bit of luck will be mentioned in numerous "novelty" stories over the next 24 hours.


Such is life as a minor party - attention is votes.  Well, attention, or a funny name.