All Hans On Deck?

A lot was written in the lead-up to the final distribution of Legislative Council Preferences about the fate of Pauline Hanson. There was also a lot of finger-pointing about who would be to blame if she was elected (which I have written about here).


The count has now been released by the NSW Electoral Commission, and it's an interesting read (if you're into that kind of thing).


I'm not going to explain how preference voting works here - if you want to know more, read the many excellent articles Anthony Green has written on the topic.


The first thing I noticed as I looked through the "First Preference by Group and Candidate"  is this. Pauline received 20 004 first preference votes. That is more than ANY OTHER candidate.


Now that is kind of an unfair statement, because as usual most people voted above the line. For example, the Coalition received 1 923 914 votes above the line.


That said, the number 1 spot on the Liberal ticket (Mike Gallagher) only received 12 582 votes.


Let's put it another way. Of all the people who were bothered to vote below the line, Pauline was the OVERWHELMING leader on first preferences.


Pauline was the number 1 spot holder for Group J (that being a ragtag bunch of independents), and that group received 77 926 first preferences, which was no doubt propelled in part by Pauline's presence at the top.


That's a solid 6th place amongst the groups, behind the Coalition, Labor, the Greens, the Shooters and Fishers, and the Christian Democrats. That's ahead of Family First and the Democrats.


Of course, first preference doesn't count for much when you're scrabbling for a seat. A quota is 185 274 votes, so even with that good start (97 930 first preference votes) Pauline still had a long way to go.


As you will know, candidates are eliminated one at a time and their votes distributed to the candidates left in the count.


The Electoral Commission has provided the full count and distribution on its website. 


After 300 counts, the remaining candidates (and their votes, including allocated preferences) are in the table below.


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 151 878
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 127 682
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 99 172
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 90 215
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 84 996
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 60 729
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 55 228
John Hatton (Independent) 53 415
Charles Matthews (No Parking Meters) 50 544
Andrew Ferguson (Labor) 41 444
Arther Chesterfield-Evans (Democrats) 35 140
David Leyonhjelm (Outdoor Recreation) 31 818


At this stage, there were 17 candidates already elected:


Coalition 10
Labor 5
Greens 2


This meant that there were 4 spots left to fill. Of the remaining candidates, Pauline is in 3rd place, or in 20th overall (counting those already elected).


On Count 301, David Leyonhjelm (Outdoor Recreation) was excluded. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 153,106 (+1,228)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 127,953 (+271)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 99,290 (+118)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 91,213 (+998)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 85,648 (+652)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 61,227 (+498)
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 56,374 (+1,146)
John Hatton (Independent) 53,631 (+216)
Charles Matthews (No Parking Meters) 51,931 (+1,387)
Andrew Ferguson (Labor) 41,926 (+482)
Arther Chesterfield-Evans (Democrats) 35,271 (+131)


You'll notice that Pauline was distributed 118 votes, which is the least of any of the remaining candidates. Nonetheless, she remains in 3rd (20th) place.


On Count 302, Arther Chesterfield-Evans (Democrats) was excluded and his preferences distributed. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 153,355 (+249)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 128,234 (+281)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 99,528 (+238)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 92,542 (+1,329)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 88,960 (+3,312)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 61,521 (+294)
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 56,723 (+349)
John Hatton (Independent) 54,165 (+534)
Charles Matthews (No Parking Meters) 52,234 (+303)
Andrew Ferguson (Labor) 43,358 (+1,432)


Pauline again receives the least preferences of any candidate, but remained in 3rd (20th) place.


On count 303, Andrew Ferguson (Labor) was excluded. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 153,576 (+221)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 128,482 (+248)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 99,686 (+158)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 93,374 (+832)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 92,698 (+3,738)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 61,924 (+403)
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 56,968 (+245)
John Hatton (Independent) 54,428 (+263)
Charles Matthews (No Parking Meters) 52,602 (+368)


Pauline again receives the least preferences, and with Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) receiving a big chunk of the preferences from the Labor candidate, the gap to the 22nd (and, therefore, first losing) candidate is narrowing.


On count 304, Charles Matthews (No Parking Meters) was excluded. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 154,886 (+1,310)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 128,997 (+515)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 99,916 (+230)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 96,570 (+3,196)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 95,188 (+2,490)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 63,458 (+1,534)
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 58,751 (+1,783)
John Hatton (Independent) 55,276 (+848)


Pauline again gets the least preferences, and more than 10 times less than 21st and 22nd.


On count 305, John Hatton (Independent) was excluded. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 155,309 (+423)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 130,322 (+1,325)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 102,199 (+2,283)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 101,454 (+6,266)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 99,838 (+3,268)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 64,267 (+809)
Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) 59,150 (+399)


On this distribution, Pauline did not receive the least - in fact, she was the 3rd most of the remaining 7 candidates. The gap to 22nd is still smaller yet - only about 2000 votes.


On count 306, Bob Smith (The Fishing Party) drops out, and the preferences are distributed. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 164,719 (+9,410)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 130,483 (+161)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 102,466 (+267)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 102,276 (+822)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 101,183 (+1,345)
Gordon Moyes (Family First) 64,738 (+471)


This time Pauline received the 2nd least preferences. The gap to 22nd is now a touch over 1000 votes.


On count 307, Gordon Moyes (Family First) was eliminated. The new table was as follows:


Robert Brown (Shooters and Fishers) 166,112 (+1,393)
Paul Green (Christian Democrats) 134,804 (+4,321)
Jeremy Buckingham (Greens) 105,472 (+3,196)
Sarah Johnson (Coalition) 104,341 (+3,158)
Pauline Hanson (Independent) 103,035 (+569)


And with that, Pauline drops to 5th (22nd place), having again received the least preferences, and by some margin. Upon her being eliminated, there are only 4 candidates remaining. As there are only 4 seats left to fill (21 seats available, and 17 candidates already elected) the remaining 4 are immediately elected.


In other words, leading up to the last count, Pauline was 2 spots clear of missing out. On the VERY LAST distribution, she dropped 2 spots and missed out.


So, if you're wondering how close it was, the answer is very. Very, very, very close.