Interest Rates

I think it is more than a little amazing how chronically disinterested in this election people are.


Admittedly, my interest in politics is relatively new.  Four years ago my political interest was in its infancy, and I can't profess that I had a huge interest in the election where Debnam was humiliated by Iemma. That said, I do remember chuckling most heartily at "More to do, but we're heading in the right direction."


My interest in politics was really ignited by observing JWH being unceremoniously dumped not only out of the lodge but also out of Bennelong.  I almost went into meltdown with interest in the 2010 Federal Election and the ensuing drama.


I approached this 2011 NSW election more than a little excited.  I was looking forward to reading about the parties brawling through the media, stories leaking, scandal, fusses over nothing, plus of course excitement and niggle on #NSWvotes.  And maybe someone like Mark Latham to really stir things up.


Instead, the whole thing appears to be a bit of a squib.  Frankly, no one seems very interested.


No one appears to be blogging very enthusiastically (except for those people who only blog to drum up support/rail against an ideology/piss people off).  #NSWvotes is more than a little dull - the usual trolls doing what trolls do, people retweeting stuff journos have tweeted, and people asking Barry O'Farrell questions (many of which, to his credit, he or his staff answer).


The media seems to be, at best, disinterested.  Reporting what is being said, but without any real enthusiasm or excitement.  Anthony Green has, as usual, provided an absolute deluge of analysis and statistical information, but I often wonder if I'm the only one reading it.


Why is this?  Could it be the fact that the coalition are now almost unbackable favourites to triumph ($1.02 on Centrebet, Labor $13.00)?  I'm sure that's part of it.


Much like a sporting event, most people like it to at least be competitive.  Labor have been sunk for so long that their loss seems not only inevitable - it seems like it has already happened, and all we're waiting for is the formality of an actual vote.


It may well be that this election is the kind of election that only the "purist" enjoys - the process itself has to entertain, because the "tension" over the result certainly won't.


On one level, I suppose this is a great shame for O'Farrell - as opposed to remembered as hero (in the same way that Rudd would be if people didn't think him an unbearable twat) it seems he will (at least for the moment) be the man who was in the right place at the right time to knock off a long expired Labor government.


He has copped a lot of flack for running a "small target" campaign, but one can't fault its effectiveness.  I wrote previously (at ) about the way that all he needs to do is not give people a reason not to vote for him, and most people who aren't firmly part of the Labor or Green base would back the Coalition.  Judging by the polls that strategy seems to be working very well.  


Labor will no doubt say that it's not fair that a man who is "hiding" things (their words) could be elected, but all he's doing is (very effectively) taking advantage of Labor's weakness.  And Labor has no one to blame for that but themselves.


Anyway.  I'll be watching the ABC with considerable interest next saturday.  I'll have all the Labor seats on a board and will closely cross them off as Labor are slaughtered.  And if anyone wants to play with me, I'll pick a time for when Anthony Green calls it for the Coalition.  I just hope I'll have someone to play with.

Betting on it

There has been some interesting chatter recently about the betting market for the NSW election.  I always take very careful note of what the betting agencies are offering - after all, they more than anyone have no partisan interest, and the amount of money they have riding on the result means that the odds they offer are (presumably) untinged by emotion or sentimentality.

It is in the bookmaker's interest to make sure that the actual favourite is priced as the favourite - if not, it is likely they will loose money.

The one thing that must be borne in mind, however, is this.  Once a bookmaker takes a disproportionate amount of money on one "runner", they will shorten the odds to prevent a monetary loss.  This does not necessarily mean that the prospects of this runner are any better than they were a day ago - but because the bookmaker now wants to discourage betting on this runner, they will shorten the odds.

Whilst the betting company has no sentimentality, the betting public certainly does.  For example, I would expect that when Australia plays in a sporting event the Australian betting public bets more on Australia than, say, a bookmaker in the opponent's country.  Consequently, all things being equal, the odds on an Australian win should be shorter with the Australian bookmaker.

Having said that all that - I doubt it makes a huge difference for political betting, although divergent odds on different major betting company websites suggests that that view may be premature.

Anyway.  I've made a spreadsheet on google docs which you can see here: http://bit.ly/gdecpv

It lists the NSW electorates, names the current member's affiliation, and then lists the winner as predicted by Sportsbet.com.au.

Frustratingly, Sportsbet is only offering odds in 38 electorates, and they're listed in black in the "Sportbet tip" column.  It's not even only the "close" competitions that are in the market - of the 38 markets, 8 have one runner where the odds offered are $1.05 or less.

I've filled in the remaining 55 electorates using Anthony's Green's tips and some guesswork, and they are all marked in red. Surprisingly, there are some very tight competitions that are not on the Sportsbet market - there 7 seats presently held by the ALP with a margin of 10% to 15% that have no market.  

Of those 7, six are left in the ALP column.  One (Kiama) is left marked for the Coalition because Anthony Green said so, apparently because a redistribution makes it s bit more Liberal.

So, what did this spreadsheet reveal?  When the Sportsbet market is combined with my guesses, the ALP win 26 seats, the Coalition win 61, the Greens win 2 and 4 seats are won by Independents.

Of course no one expects a uniform swing - Kogarah has a margin of 17.7% and Sportsbet tips it to move to the Coalition, whilst Toongabbie with a margin of 14.5% is tipped to be retained by the ALP.

That said, if we get out Anthony Green's Election calculator out and plug in numbers, what swing spits out the ALP winning 26 seats?  Roughly, 12.2%.  That's about a 60/40 two party preferred split.

Even if I move all 6 of the 10% to 15% ALP seats into the LIB column and make it 67 to 20, the swing is still less than 15%

60/40 a shellacking, by any measure.  Probably too much for Labor to be back in power in 4 years time.  But the swing "predicted" is still far less than the numbers we're seeing in the polls, which which have tipped swings of as much as 18%.

Of course the only poll that matters is the one carried out in polling booths on 26 March.  But I think we learn far more looking at the Sportsbet market than we ever will looking at a Newspoll.